Wow, if you can smell a measured win, it’s proclaiming to be one.
After a “dear lord, this film will assuredly flop” Friday opening of a tepid $10.9 million, Red One has rebounded a bit with holiday cheers and grit for a $34 million opening weekend. This is almost on par with Dwayne Johnson vehicles like Central Intelligence, Rampage, and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which opened with $36 million. The Amazon MGM feature, intended initially only for PVOD, has surged with a PR campaign for the multiplex show. It’s better than nothing, especially if a preposterous $253 million budget paid everyone upfront. However big he might be, Johnson can’t precisely waltz in to draw numbers much higher than this for debut weekends (minus the exception of San Andreas‘ $55 million launch in 2015 or any correlation with the Fast & Furious IP).
Again, if Red One was budgeted more like a “brand new, IMAX spectacle 2010s beat” that was budgeted closer to $125-150 million, then we could examine this more dignifiedly. Black Adam, despite superhero fatigue, couldn’t be held up enough by Johnson’s smolder turning pale, and Jungle Cruise, despite COVID variables, didn’t light the world up sufficient in another popcorn spectacle manner/advertisement for Disney’s theme parks. Johnson’s last solo-led spectacle film that could pull numbers (minus the IP of F&F, DC, and Jumanji) was Skyscraper back in 2018, which earned $305 million worldwide on a $125 million budget. And Chris Evans, an actor renowned for playing Captain America, couldn’t pull numbers because, much like Chris Hemsworth, the value comes from the character onscreen.
Anyway, if this has a worthwhile multiplier in terms of holiday legs, a domestic finish worth $140-150 million could make up for it. But, but, but. That possibility may be hammered if Wicked One, Gladiator II, and Moana II bring all the sensation and demographics towards their way. With an $84 million debut, it “may” only get to $275-300 million worldwide as a best-case scenario. This could have been a remote win if the budget had been sliced in half, but Johnson may have to learn that factor someday (or recoup his losses by storming back into WWE).
In other news, Venom: The Last Dance took second place in its fourth weekend with $7.355 million. Thanks to $90 million from China, it will be passing $450 million worldwide imminently, which is still a respectable win for this IP. It may “just” miss its predecessor’s $508 million cume, but due to the waning interest of the average Marvel/DC fare, this is still a good enough victory for Tom Hardy and Sony. Perhaps the only thing we’re waiting for is when Tom Hardy will be announced as a cameo in Tom Holland’s Spider-Man 4, or the new leader of the Sinister Six when it drops in (speculating) 2027.
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever missed $20 million domestically for this weekend, Heretic has passed $25 million worldwide, and The Wild Robot has surged past $300 million globally. Smile 2 has passed $128 million worldwide (this is still worthwhile as its predecessor overperformed with $217 million worldwide).
Conclave has earned $26.6 million domestically, while Hello, Love, Again opened with $2.37 million from 248 theaters. Oh, and A Real Pain expanded into another 1,173 theaters for $2.3 million.
Next weekend sees the release of Gladiator II, Wicked, Armor, and The Fix.
