Tis the season to be jolly, indeed.
This weekend saw not only a generational sequel pop into town to score a robust R-rated debut but also the inclusion of a musical fantasy that opened for a new-to-cinema starter. Wicked trounced from a $46.74 million Friday to earn $114 million for the weekend, making it the third-biggest debut of the 2024 calendar year (behind Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine). This preliminary debut before Thanksgiving rocks higher than Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone ($90 million in 2001) but misses Frozen II‘s $130 million five years ago. But, but, but, there’s more to it than that.
This release is for a non-sequel, yet not bound by the myriad of Marvel, DC, or reboots/remakes that have knocked on Hollywood’s door in the past fifteen years. Based on a book and stage show, this film only sits behind some other popular “part ones” that blew up Hollywood in the past twenty years (think Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man, It: Chapter One, The Hunger Games, and the recent Barbie). With sky-high reviews, an A from CinemaScore, and winter legs, Jon M. Chu’s 160-minute feature will undoubtedly keep the holidays alive. Oh, and its worldwide debut of $164 million is the highest ever for a feature based on a Broadway musical since Into The Woods. With a good potential for legs, yours indeed believes that $400-420 million domestic is feasible, similar to Harry Potter 1 and Frozen II‘s legs over the Thanksgiving/Christmas season. Even with the overseas number painting a less-than-stellar picture, there is a swell chance we could be looking at a $650 million worldwide gross, but don’t put it out of the realm of possibility if it can somehow catch Dune: Part Two‘s $714 million global tally.
On the other side of the winning coin, Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II opened with a worthwhile $55.5 million domestic debut. That’s on par with John Wick 3 and Bad Boys for Life, even if the budget of $250 million is the glaring indictment of how far this sequel will succeed. With good word of mouth, it is still possible to match its predecessor’s $188 million domestic run. However, it’ll need to reach, if not eclipse, its predecessor’s worldwide total of $456 million to be considered anything close to a success. At least it’s a $250 million earner that’s better than Red One…
The Dwayne Johnson/Chris Evans-led holiday special tanked 59% in its second weekend, a sharper drop than recent Johnson spectacles. That puts it at a miserable $52.9 million domestically and $117.1 million globally, which will not be conducive enough to say the variables matched to Amazon were sufficient to get it out there (even though money prevails on the theatrical distribution side). We will discuss a box office disappointment at this rate, even if it can scrape past $200 million globally.
Venom: The Last Dance has inched past Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to become the 10th-highest earning film of the year (until Wicked sings its piece) by passing $456 million globally. It’ll probably wrap up around $480-490 million, which is still a win for the Tom Hardy-led series. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever has passed $25 million domestically, Heretic has earned $31 million worldwide, and The Wild Robot has quadrupled its budget and domestic weekend debut by nearing $320 million worldwide.
Smile 2 will soon surpass Scream V‘s $139 million globally tally in a few days, and Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin debuts at $5.12 million.
This week sees the release of Watchmen Chapter II, Hemet, Moana 2, and Queer. Happy Thanksgiving!
