Not to be overly pessimistic, but the first big blockbuster of 2025 seems to be a potential case of doom and gloom, particularly for a once prestigious IP. To be frank, opening with $88.5 million over the three-day weekend (and around $100 million, including Presidents Day) and $193 million worldwide is a worthwhile number, but it may be more frontloaded than we’re expecting, as middling reviews and a B- from CinemaScore may not have it leg out as well.

Captain America: Brave New World‘s opening is higher than Shang Chi‘s $75 million/95 million Labor Day launch and on par with Captain America: The Winter Solider‘s $95 million (back from 2014). However, in regards to February openers, it sold fewer tickets than Fifty Shades of Grey, and inflation accounting, 2003’s Daredevil, 2007’s Ghost Rider, and 2010’s Valentine’s Day. Oh, and it is leaps and bounds lower than Deadpool‘s $132 million/$156 million in 2016 and Black Panther‘s monstrous $202 million/$242 million in 2018 in this exact holiday frame. Again, superheroes were exploding in popularity between 2014 and 2019 (even crummy products like Suicide Squad and Batman v. Superman still pulled good enough numbers), so what happens in 2025 is a different scenario. Legs for this fourth chapter under the star-spangled hero may be more in line with around $190-200 million domestic instead of $250 million domestic for a face-saving handoff. And while the competition is sparse for the next few weeks, it still doesn’t create a potential sense of optimism to surge back in.

Again, Marvel Studios was a reliable IP for general audiences and hardcore fans. From 2008 to 2019 (even if critics may not be as fond of The Incredible Hulk or Thor: The Dark World then and now), they smashed records with their principal and sub-brands, broke new forefront with tantalizing new products, and found new ways to keep their investments fresh and engaging. Then, 2021 started to show weakness as Eternals couldn’t hold its own, blood dripped in the water with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and a barren set of numbers with The Marvels hurt the perception in the new decade. There’s no longer an “automatic event” cloud hovering over their new products nor a guarantee it’ll bring favorable products consistently back to the big screen. Folks turned up and paid big for Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine because they sold themselves as generational events (when you have guys that helmed the superheroes in the 2000s like Tobey Maguire and Hugh Jackman, folks wanted to see a comeback). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 retained its roots and consistently delivered $845.6 million worldwide.

Unfortunately, Brave New World now puts more pressure on Thunderbolts and the fourth revival of The Fantastic Four in the hot seat to succeed later this year; and if that fails, we’re waiting for Robert Downey Jr. to return to save the universe and box office numbers once Avengers: Doomsday arrives next year. The question is, if we’re going with the latter, will audiences still want to go the distance?

In other news, Paddington in Peru secured $13 million in its debut, which is slightly higher than its predecessor back in 2017. Legs like this would get it to around $42 million domestically and potentially $250 million globally. Good numbers come for Paddington Brown, even if this threequel isn’t as revered as its two predecessors.

Heart Eyes grossed $10 million in its second weekend, which is good news for Sony as it keeps the romance section alive and prosperous thanks to the Valentine’s Day influx. Dog Man dipped 30% in its third weekend, but it is heading to $100 million worldwide. Ne Zha 2 made its domestic debut after crushing numbers in China with $7.3 million (and has ballooned past $1.6 billion worldwide), and Love Hurts only earned $4.37 million in its second weekend.

Mufasa: The Lion King will reach $700 million worldwide before it wraps up in the multiplex, and One of Them Days will keep Sony in the loop as it will try to make a reach for $50 million domestically.

Next weekend sees the release of The Monkey, The Unbreakable Boy, Millers in Marriage, Old Guy, and Cleaner.