Well, to put it aptly, the short answer: Maybe, possibly yes.
The long answer: well, it’s a Greek action epic positioned as the event movie of the summer for grown-ups and “cool kids,” a clever indulgence in further diversification from the current arsenal of films/IP titles available in theaters in the summer season (think along the lines of Minions & Monsters, Moana, Supergirl, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day). As we discussed in our box office findings this past weekend, moviegoers will show up for a cornucopia of titles that appeal to diverse demographics, each with its own hook. The reincarnation of a pop culture icon, the returns of several IP tales people want to see, and some low-budget, enticing showcases of thrillers (via Obsession and Backrooms) that prove Hollywood may need to return to the lessons of the past.
In the same vein, The Odyssey will be another epic that will showcase Nolan’s greatest strengths, buoyed by a star-strudded cast (including Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson, and Anne Hathaway). Now, ticket sales erupted on June 4th, a beautiful testament to the filmmaker’s prowess, given that Oppenheimer, three years ago, cracked $975 million worldwide and swept the 2024 Academy Awards. It also has a wide-open release for the mid-July weekend and, provided legs hold for the second weekend, it won’t face any stark competition (until Spider-Man: Brand New Day on July 31).
The R-rating, same as Nolan’s biopic of the “man who created the atomic bomb,” will ensure Nolan has the full arsenal to make whatever film he wants, not one ridden with PG-13 concessions (which could’ve made it inferior up front to other Greek epics).
Let’s say it eats up the box office on opening weekend (subject to good reviews and word-of-mouth), we’ll say $100 million domestically (for conservative sake, and the fact that there ain’t no Barbie this time to challenge it), and a 3.5x multiplier. That would put it at around $350 million domestically and $600-650 million overseas, which would put it in the same league as Oppenheimer. If it gets destroyed by Spider-Man’s fourth dance overall (which also stars Tom Holland and Zendaya), it might end up closer to $750-850 million worldwide (along the lines of Interstellar and Inception), which would still be a great performance on a hefty $250 million budget. If it can sustain its legs alongside the webslinger, it could very well pass $1 billion, in the same vicinity as The Dark Knight (the only question is where it would stand relative to Michael‘s global total by then, as Universal had the overseas rights to list?). The Dark Knight Rises could be a bridge too far ($1.115 billion), but ask this writer on the July 17th weekend, especially if it frontloads.
It’s an intriguing question, but Nolan has a metier for delivering in biopics, IPs, or films with his own flair (eh, Tenet may have been an over-aggressive film in terms of style; yes, we do have to account for COVID variables too). But The Odyssey remains to be seen on the big screen.
