The 79-year-old treasured filmmaker reclaimed his fame after a few years away from the director’s seat, bringing back the aliens and roots to nab $44 million domestically with Disclosure Day. Coupled with $93 million worldwide thus far, that’s not too shabby of an opening for the director, making the false premise, “welp, maybe it should’ve been called E.T. 2!” That’s also the fourth-biggest launch for a non-IP, non-horror title behind the likes of Interstellar ($49 million), San Andreas ($54 million) and 2025’s F1 ($57 million).
You know, Spielberg’s blockbuster heyday coincided with audiences having fewer options and being far more likely to gravitate toward original films or new-to-them adaptations, on the strength of stars, marquee filmmakers, and intriguing concepts. All of the films, a la Jurassic Park or its lower-than-Spielberg-standards sequel, would be worth more in dollars today, considering inflation. But Spielberg is a name that you can stamp on a film, and folks will show up. Do we think it’ll have the bankroll legs of a Sinners or Obsession? Probably not, but with the helpful doses of box-office tales as of late, we have it on good authority that it will justify its $115 million budget. And yes, Emily Blunt and Colman Domingo aren’t exactly draws, as they could have been favored more like Tom Cruise or Tom Hanks in the late 90’s era. But good reviews and a B from CinemaScore will keep the folks at bay, especially as it “discloses” the world as we know it overrun by hidden agendas of the higher-ups and extraterrestrials living among us. Maybe Spielberg will get to live long enough to see some appear before his very eyes. At this conventional rate, it will probably reach $150 million domestically.
Fun aside, let’s move to another newcomer, The Furious. Yours truly will be sending out the review tomorrow for this mesmerizing action piece. Not only did it overexceed expectations on the action front, but it was also a cathartic sensation. Kenji Tanigaki’s third outing earned $2.75 million in its debut, which is not a barn-burner for a Hong Kong action film, but it shall do well. For note, the Raid movies (distributed by Sony, with the former being recognized as one of the best martial arts movies in cinema history) earned $4.1 million in 2012 and $2.6 million in 2014, respectively. Stop! That! Train! opened with $2.02 million.
Retreating to the record books, Obsession will have nabbed its fourth straight weekend of $20 million+ (once actuals come in), and the first non-Christmas title since The Sixth Sense to earn more than 10x times its opening weekend. For a 27-year-old streak to be broken by a first-time director from YouTube, how much more can it go the distance? Right now, for a fifth weekend, it’s competing/keeping up with the likes of other IP blockbusters: Barbie, The Sixth Sense, The Force Awakens, Black Panther, Top Gun: Maverick, Titanic, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Avatar. It will pass $300 million worldwide by Wednesday, and probably reach $235-250 million domestic to wrap up its god-like run. Blumhouse is sitting comfortably knowing it can dance in the stars when it delivers content folks want to show up for, and will keep returning to the seats to do so.
On the worst side, Scary Movie 6 shrieked at all of us with a 73% drop in its second weekend, earning $14.5 million. That is a very bad drop, even if we discount the fact that the film is only budgeted $30 million and will pass $175 million worldwide sometime tomorrow. It will probably finish closer to $110-115 million and probably $225 million globally. It could end up closer to Scream 7‘s $122 million domestic (though unlikely) and $208 million overall (that is a possibility). Ironic how two treasured franchises that have existed for 30+ years seem to be meeting their collapses in a year where non-IPs have taken back their crown.
A24’s Backrooms is still doing great business for a horror film. It has already passed $160 million domestic, and will probably finish its run close to $190-200 million domestic. Once it passes $178 million, it will have beaten Jordan Peele’s Get Out and last year’s Conjuring: Last Rites to join Obsession as Blumhouse’s first and second-highest domestic titles. Double-dipping in that YouTube glory, it seems.
Masters of the Universe has stumbled as a would-be franchise starter, with only $8.66 million in its second weekend and not even $90 million worldwide thus far, on a $170 million budget. Maybe He-Man was destined to only do the lighter side of business, as history showed years ago. The Mandalorian and Grogu passed $315 million worldwide this weekend, but it will still fall short of breaking even (usually the good rule of thumb for a film to be profitable is to 2x its budget, and then go another 10-15% higher to account for all marketing expenses). That’s another finger pointed at Disney+ for sacrificing its core brands for several years and programming audiences not to show back up in theaters (the MCU felt it, Pixar felt it, and Star Wars felt it).
Finally, Michael has broken past Bohemian Rhapsody’s unadjusted $911 million cume to become the highest-earning musical biopic. It’s practically at $363 million domestically and just opened well in Japan this weekend (even though they don’t buoy themselves with great debuts, the legs are much more hearty), so is $1 billion still in the cards? If it can reach $375-380 million in the U.S. and Canada (despite already landing on PVOD) and the legs continue to carry from Japan and other overseas partners, the benchmark will be met. At the very least, it will be passing Oppenheimer soon, so it still proves the King of Pop rules the world (and the man who invented its destruction).
Next weekend sees the release of Toy Story 5, The Death of Robin Hood, Girls Like Girls, and Maddie’s Secret.
