If you were to tell this writer at the initiation of 2023 that almost every live-action superhero would hurl catastrophic results, you’d be hard-pressed not to find an argument rolling your way. But times and interests evolve, and it’s not merely enough to whip out an “okay” superhero movie anymore. The high points of the superhero genre rolled their way last decade from The Avengers exploding to $1.518 billion worldwide to capping off with the highest-grossing movie in Avengers: Endgame (until Avatar got some re-releases) and a mighty $1.132 billion from Spider-Man: Far From Home in 2019. Once COVID times hit and movie absences needed a resurge in some recovery, the only superhero movie since 2020 to make a ferocious statement that superheroes are here to stay was Spider-Man: No Way Home, with $1.922 billion in the winter season of 2021.

In 2023, a nary sense of fatigue started kicking its way down the doorstep once Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania broke its characters and story to make another “Avengers-level threat” with Kang in the Quantum Realm. Barring the firing of Jonathan Majors over assault charges, the threequel should’ve made an impact but failed to break even with $476.1 million, the lowest of the Ant-Man series and the lowest earning entry in Marvel since Captain America: The First Avenger in 2011 (we’re discounting Black Widow, Eternals and Shang-Chi since those opened during the recovery times post-COVID and/or simultaneously dropped on DIsney+). Then, Shazam! Fury of the Gods also earned mediocre reviews a month later and became a box-office bomb with $134 million on a $125 million budget. The trend continued repeatedly this year, with the only exceptions being Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.

So, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom collapsed with $28.1 million on the pre-Christmas weekend, whereas its predecessor made $33 million on its opening day by comparison. This potentially radioactive sequel was hit with a myriad of issues, not solely from superhero fatigue but every possible concoction that Warner Brothers tried to whip up to make this sequel somewhat feasible. Dwayne Johnson’s failed recoup, Ezra Miller getting hit with drama offscreen, Batgirl getting shelved, and the Snyderverse becoming obsolete all added to negate Jason Momoa’s effect to keep this universe alive. With a reboot of DC (again), it’s over for the DCEU, and it couldn’t be ignored further when the last feature sinks on its opening weekend.

For any hope of Christmas legs, this may only get to $100 million domestically and maybe $350-375 million worldwide. That still would level this sequel as a box-office disappointment, where its predecessor earned amazing legs and surpassed $1 billion worldwide. Aquaman 2 will play more like a Tron: Legacy or Star Trek: Nemesis than a Night at the Museum or Hobbit prequel. With $110 million worldwide in its debut, let’s see how well it can leg if Christmas legs give it that sense of recovery.

In other news, Wonka continues to play more like the coveted Christmas feature this winter, already past $75 million domestically and $250 million globally. The musical fantasy has kept solid reviews and will continue to stand out nicely over the remainder of the holiday season. It could get past $350 million worldwide, but $400 million may be a bridge too far unless it pulls out legs a la Jumanji: The Next Level, The Greatest Showman, or Aquaman. Migration opened to bronze with $12.31 million in its debut, a modest start for an animation feature from Illumination and the optimism it can leg out like Puss in Boots: The Last Wish or Pixar’s Elemental. Perhaps a $200 million global performance will be the bar for the course. Anyone But You took in $6.235 million, Salaar: Part 1 Ceasefire got $5.481 million, and A24’s The Iron Claw nabbed $5.05 million (a standout performance from Zac Efron with some potential award consideration).

Lastly, The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes passed $300 million worldwide, Godzilla Minus One earned $40 million domestically, and The Boy and the Heron passed $100 million worldwide. Five Nights at Freddy’s has wrapped up its time in the spotlight with $294.2 million globally, the highest-earning Blumhouse picture thus far. Disney has been a sore loser this winter with The Marvels and Wish bombing outright, with no chance of modest recovery happening for Christmas. Sometimes, giving the audience a more intriguing product is better than relying on an IP to carry your numbers (even if we’re harsh since both came out right after the strikes ended and lacked any pertinent marketing). If we’re mentioning other companies, there could be something quite interesting in Warner Brothers’ case if they happened to acquire Paramount’s assets.

Happy holidays to all! Next weekend, before 2024 kicks off, sees the release of The Color Purple, The Boys in the Boat, Ferrari, and Good Grief on Netflix.