Hot diggity! If you had told this writer that we’d expect the North American box office to return to this holiday spectacle of numbers ($420 million over the Wednesday-Sunday frame) after COVID/up-tick in PVOD releases, yours indeed would be mind-boggled if we had this discussion three years ago. But, perhaps the lust has returned, as much as Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Dune: Part Two proved (and the recent Wicked), you can bring back the glory with your infamous IP tracks and roll the dice on fresh faces to lock up a new formula.
Moana 2 soared to significant wavelengths with a buffo of $386 million in its first five days, which was another sequel delegated to jump straight to Disney+. Wow, so maybe Disney learned something marvelous after the horrors of slingshotting Pixar originals like Soul, Luca, and Turning Red four years ago onto their streaming service and then retorting back with “we’re sorry(?)” with Encanto, Strange World, and Raya and the Last Dragon. Yeah, not quite. Disney knew how to rule the animated world with fantastic original toons back in the 2010s, and in the 2020s, well, they seem more confident another academic sequel will continue to pull numbers (or some nonchalant live-action reboot). The last original animated feature Pixar tossed in that made a fortune was Coco, which legged out to a healthy $814.3 million. Yeah, let’s see if learning these aspects will salvage Elio‘s prospects.
Moving on, Moana 2 has already surpassed Coco, Tangled, and Ralph Breaks the Internet in terms of total domestic numbers. Assuming it can hold the fort with legs and keep its other demographic challengers at bay, it’ll probably reach $450-475 million domestically. Yours truly can’t forsee it skyrocketing much higher as we await Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic the Hedgehog 3, but it’s still a massive win for Disney.
Wicked continues to rule elsewhere, taking $117.5 million over the Weds.-Sun window. It has already passed $360 million worldwide, becoming the fourth-highest-earning Broadway adaptation. It should pass Grease‘s $396 million in a few days and will sing past Les Miserables‘ $442 million later in the month. Its legs are already better than those of various Harry Potter, Hunger Games, and Twilight sequels (and prequels). With only $29 million from international markets these past few days, it once again is a feature (much like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) that skews more favorably to domestic territories (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing). With Part Two on the way next year, continue to witness this musical dance with more for the remainder of the winter season.
Gladiator II collected $30.7 million in its second weekend, a 44% dip. With $320 million worldwide, it still needs strong legs to justify its insane $250 million budget. Much like we had discussed with Joker 2, a return of IP doesn’t equate to the necessity of inflating the budget. However, it still favors the adult-skewing demographic, so there aren’t many significant hits out there in its way.
Red One rebounded well, earning $12.9 million in its third weekend, bringing its domestic total to $76 million and $148.6 million. Still, it won’t be enough to justify its budget, but Amazon will take every penny it can get. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever has passed $32 million domestically, Bonhoeffer missed passing $10 million domestically, and Venom: The Last Dance will wrap up its run between $480-490 million worldwide.
Oh, and The Wild Robot has done tremendous work for Universal as it’s wrapping up in the multiplex, but it will pass $480 million worldwide on its way out.
Next weekend sees the release of Y2K, Nightbitch, The Order, Werewolves, and The Return.
