Box Office: Oscar Season Is Upon Us, But Only Good News for Studios (Not Numbers)

In another quiet weekend of the year, Lionsgate continues to be on a (small) role, yet the Oscar season is stirring up a kerfuffle when distributors want more tell-tale signs of numbers from the box office.

Lionsgate had a horrendous 2024, with only one feature passing $40 million domestically (The Best Christmas Pageant Ever), so banking on putting some delays on Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk, the Ballerina spin-off, and Saw XI could prove to be a savior. To be fair, Flight Risk and the last two Lionsgate releases are performing on par with the conventional terms. Gibson’s recent debut nabbed $12 million at the box office this weekend and topped it, so a decent turnout for a $20 million budgeted work. However, a C from CinemaScore and mediocre reviews will not sustain its ability, even if one feels it’s trying for a scene from The Dark Knight Rises or Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop. Mark Wahlberg has dismantled his theatrical bankability (much like we discussed Dwayne Johnson recently) with a slew of relatively unknown streaming releases.

The other newcomers, Presence and Brave the Dark, only earned $3.415 million and $2.6 million, respectively. So, we’re still in the same boat with the leggy folks from the holidays to rule otherwise.

Mufasa: The Lion King earned $8.7 million in its sixth weekend, bringing its domestic total to $221 million and the worldwide total to $628 million. It is days away from surpassing Wonka‘s $634 million and has multiplied its legs by 6.5x, which is phenomenal for a blockbuster tentpole (despite being another live-action remake). Maybe we’d be talking more positively if China had given it a 2010s boost, but it’ll stick with its current fame.

One of Them Days held well for its second weekend, passing $25 million domestically. As mentioned last weekend, Keke Palmer may soon become a draw at some point after her strong roles in Hustlers and Nope, and it’s a win for an original, non-IP, black women-led comedy. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will pass $450 million worldwide by tomorrow and is also the second-highest-earning video game film (behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie). Moana 2 has passed $1.025 billion globally, while Wolf Man collapsed with a 69% dip in its second weekend. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera missed $40 million globally, and A Complete Unknown should be passing $75 million globally by tomorrow.

Next weekend sees the release of Dog Man, Companion, Love Me, Valiant One, and Like Father Like Son.

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