A SEGA threequel outperforming, and thus outsmarting, a Disney live-action remake prequel in the realm of the Christmas season? Whew, to quote a particular news reporter, that escalated quickly.
Arguably the best weekend of the year to open a significant theatrical release, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 sped to a solid albeit unspectacular $62 million domestically. It is below the $72 million debut of its predecessor in 2022 but slightly higher than the $58 million debut of this series back in 2020. The Ben Schwartz, Jim Carrey, Keanu Reeves, and Idris Elba-led work didn’t light the world on fire with its Friday opening culminating in this debut, but we could be in a situational perspective where this gaming IP may pull legs a la Aquaman (a $72 million debut legging to $335 million domestically). That might be vindicated if we weren’t in a current environment where a musical fantasy is plowing records while the latest voyage with Moana 2 is headed to $750 million worldwide. Compared to its predecessors, we could be looking at a total domestic value of $220 million (holiday legs could easily stretch closer to $250 million, but let’s see where we are next weekend). The kids/family-friendly added element, positive word of mouth, plus the added value of Keanu Reeves doing his PG impression of John Wick and a sendoff(?) of Jim Carrey for this IP may do the trick of having the hedgehogs running rings around the competition till February. Once it opens in the international territories after Christmas, we’ll start lining up the bingo cards to see where its worldwide tally lands.
In other timorous news, Mufasa: The Lion King debuted with an atrocious $35 million this weekend. That may not seem like a bit of “arbitrary” bad news if we assess the numbers but keep in mind this opening is lower than, checks notes, Joker: Folie a Deux ($38 million) and the Dumbo revival back in 2019 ($48 million). It’s also a mighty $156 million drop from its predecessors’ opening in 2019 (cough, cough, Joaquin Phoenix is laughing away here too). It doesn’t help when your sequel/prequel pulls a Solo/Furiosa hybrid with lesser-known actors and then thinks it can replicate the previous success (ask Joker, Captain Marvel, Alice Through the Looking Glass, and Aquaman). Damn it, Hollywood, when will you learn?
The box office budget ($200 million) plus middle-of-the-road reviews may have sealed its fate, but let’s follow up on the weekend after Christmas to dictate if this is another Eragon situation (measly reaching $400 million worldwide) or legging out like Bumblebee and nabbing $600 million worldwide to justify its expenses.
Wicked secured the bronze position this weekend with $13.5 million, putting it on course to pass $400 million domestically by next weekend. It has now passed $571 million globally, so Mamma Mia! will be its next primary target to pass. Moana 2 dipped 51% in its fourth weekend and will not have the domestic juice to surpass Wicked‘s potent run, but it is on course to pass $750 million worldwide by Wednesday. Newcomer Homestead opened with $6.06 million and rounded out the top five for the weekend.
Gladiator II has earned $416 million worldwide, whilst Kraven the Hunter crashed and burned with $3.1 million in its subsequent weekend (has Sony learned to stop making any more films in their Spider-Verse devoid of Spider-Man)? The Hunter film has not even cracked $50 million worldwide; at this race, it would be blessed to achieve that milestone. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did its swan dive with $1.27 million in its second weekend.
Finally, Red One has wrapped up its time in theaters with $177 million worldwide on a $200 million+ budget.
In the last weekend of 2024, we will see the release of Nosferatu, A Complete Unknown, Better Man, The Fire Inside, and Babygirl. Happy Christmas to all!
