June hasn’t been remarkably good for 2025 standards, as most of the big projects carried over from May had to do much of the legwork. How to Train Your Dragon and the new release of F1: The Movie (a $55.6 million domestic debut and $144 million global launch) have done pretty well, but you can’t say the same for Pixar’s Elio, or several “we need to bless more IP on audiences” with the likes of Karate Kid: Legends, Ballerina, and even 28 Years Later. I suppose it might have to do with the fewer releases during this month compared to ten years ago, but when big multiplexes like AMC disclose 25-30 minute previews and charge higher concession and ticket prices, it’s cumbersome to get invested.
So, yes, the Brad Pitt-led original feature took a worthwhile start and is Pitt’s second-largest domestic launch, behind World War Z‘s $66 million in 2013. The numbers are also swell for another hefty-budgeted Apple product, but we can attribute that to the cast getting paid the big bucks before it heads to the streaming field. Warner Bros. Discovery is handling the global distribution of the film, so let’s be generous and say if it could do something worthwhile, we might be talking about a $450 million international total once all is said and done. $500 million would be exciting if F1 proves to be the movie event of the summer (if it can handle Jurassic World: Rebirth, Superman, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, The Bad Guys 2, The Naked Gun, Nobody 2, and The Conjuring: Last Rites). A good visual treat with positive reviews will do its best to weather the storm (sorry, dinosaurs) come next weekend.
How to Train Your Dragon dropped 47% in its third weekend to capture $19.4 million, bringing its domestic total to over $200 million. With it surpassing $450 million worldwide, I expect this to reach $525 million by the end. If it retains the 45/55 split, then it can probably reach $250 million domestic as well. Pixar’s Elio is facing the unfortunate fate of Disney’s past sins, and may not even reach $100 million domestically when all is said and done (it’s currently at $42.2 million domestically and $56.34 million worldwide); yikes.
Speaking of other bad news, M3GAN 2.0 is in the same boat as Joker: Folie à Deux: a radical change in the presentation of the product marked a significant downturn in opening weekends and perception of the product. Now, to be fair, the sequel to the murder bot is a decent outing, but the optimism could only carry it so far, and not high enough as a breakout sequel. Going from a small-scale horror to a full-blown action sci-fi is a derivative topic that we’ve seen before, so this is more of a Blumhouse issue than a theater one. The debut of $10.2 million marks a significant decline from its predecessor’s $30 million launch at the beginning of 2023; there were no viral social media outbreaks to support this release. Perhaps if it retained some of its horror roots and had been marketed as a horror sequel, maybe it would’ve sustained a better opening?
28 Years Later seemed to be an overinflated opening wonder, as it has dipped 68% in its second weekend, earning $9.7 million and surpassing $50 million domestically. It may reach $150 million worldwide, which is acceptable, but not the place envisioned for this sequel. M: I – Final Reckoning is clawing for $200 million domestic while Lilo & Stitch has passed $400 million domestic and $925 million globally. Materialists has passed $30 million domestically, while Ballerina will wrap up below $125 million worldwide.
Oh, and The Karate Kid: Legends may have surpassed $100 million worldwide, but keep in mind, this is a far cry from the 2010 feature starring Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith, which grossed $359.1 million worldwide, and the original trilogy’s earnings of over $300 million. Cobra Kai should’ve been the definitive end of the karate series with Pat Morita’s blessing, not another run-of-the-mill Karate Kid movie that may not even warrant a seventh one.
Next week sees the release of Jurassic World: Rebirth, The Old Guard 2, and Heads of State (on Prime Video).
