With a total domestic weekend of roughly $150 million despite some new titles, not all was great, and certainly not all was bad. At least business is still a-boomin’, and more to come once Independence Day weekend/July rolls around this coming week.
Toy Story 5 still holds the kids/family-friendly demographic and thus remained atop the box office for its second weekend with $70 million (-56% drop). As predicted last week, it was more frontloaded than expected (a drop closer to Incredibles 2 than Inside Out 2), as it dropped ever-so-slightly more than its predecessor did back in 2019 (51% drop from a $120.9 million debut). It should be passing $300 million domestically sometime tonight, and it has already ballooned past $585 million worldwide. So yes, it will be passing $450 million domestically for this run, and most likely $500 million (assuming it doesn’t get dropped like a bag of flies by Minions & Monsters this coming week), and a global tally of around $1.05-1.1 billion seems to be fair play. Pixar can still do justice to the Toy Story IP, even though it’s public knowledge that the series should have wrapped up years ago. But a tale of old-school toys versus high-tech gadgets, without vilifying the newer gadgets, is a good bit of nostalgia for us adults, and now the kids are drawn to a world where technology seems to have won.
All right, now it’s time for a not-so-super discussion about DC Studios’ second romp, which bellows fears much like it did when its predecessor, the DC Extended Universe, decided to go “balls to the walls”, bat-s*** crazy by pitting two icons together in a collision of ideologies for its second outing. Yes, Supergirl is a small, modest spinoff to a well-regarded (for the most part) kickstart with James Gunn’s Superman last year that legged to $619 million worldwide. But the higher-ups need to realize it’s not 2016-2017 anymore for superheroes (hell, I’ll be d*mned if I don’t include 2018 as well, given the fantastic rollout of Black Panther), as no one is remotely interested in another “run by the mill” hero. A mixed bag of a film that’s a relative disappointment with a B- from CinemaScore, it was always going to be a risk taking a jump at a big-budgeted spinoff when Hollywood is relying on big-name IPs to keep superheroes around. It opened with $38 million at its debut, which raises a myriad of problems when you consider the track records of Marvel, DC, and even Sony in the past few years.
That’s lower than the workers’ strikes/hero fatigue/”Disney+ still affects us” release of The Marvels ($48 million in 2023) and just barely above Birds of Prey‘s $33 million in 2020, just before the world shutdown. Checking our notes, both films “only” reached $84 million domestically, which seems like an aspirational checkpoint for the Milly Alcock-led spinoff. And if you want to get down to the face of the Earth (with only a $68 million global debut), the possibility of a final total gross closer to Green Lantern ($226 million) than The Flash ($272 million) now is in full force and effect. Yikes; that will mean DC Studios’ second outing is practically a redux of the DCEU’s turmoil with Batman v. Superman back in 2016, only this time resulting in a box office bomb. We’re past the glory days when a subpar MCU/DC film would guarantee a worthwhile success; the blood in the water started in 2021 with Eternals, was amplified by Black Adam, and continued with the likes of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Flash, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. The Marvels was hampered by multiple factors and was a gargantuan far cry from Captain Marvel‘s run, which benefited from the Avengers: Endgame fever-high anticipation. Hollywood simply tries to keep going back to the MCU as the basis for starting a blockbuster series/IP, but that ship has sailed. COVID changed the rules. Fatigue for incessant superhero tales started to reflect in the numbers and performances (even The Fantastic Four: First Steps couldn’t gross more than Ant-Man in 2015), so only IP mainstays can be the sole selling point (Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Deadpool & Wolverine, Avengers: Doomsday). Folks want something new and fresh, original concepts.
Speaking of original concepts, the holy grail of Obsession keeps rolling and will not stop, playing more like a holiday-level breakout in terms of legs and interest. It earned $9.8 million in its third weekend, bringing it past $233 million domestic and $370 million worldwide. Yes, it will pass $400 million worldwide. It’s already earned 13.5x its opening weekend. I mean, it earned around $130 million in June alone, second only to Toy Story 5. It is one of the leggiest films out there, only fifth behind Titanic (21x), The Greatest Showman (19x), Anyone But You (14.6x), and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (14.98x). Oh, and all those films mentioned opened during Christmas, so Obsession has the leg up. If it passes $258 million domestically, which is almost a given at this point, folks might need to start collapsing for more records.
Paramount’s Jackass: Best and Last, which is another glorified clip show as much as a series finale, earned around $8.4 million in its debut. That is over 50% lower than Jackass Forever, which was sold as “one last ride” entry and gave the baton to other folks. Not sure why Johnny Knoxville and all needed to see another chapter get tossed in for the sake of it, but the Jackass series sure as hell ain’t no Toy Story.
Disclosure Day will pass $200 million worldwide sometime by Tuesday/Wednesday (still on the lower end for a Spielberg film). Backrooms has passed $330 million globally, and is still just behind Obsession in terms of originals and the highest-earning tales for Blumhouse. Scary Movie 6 has passed Scream 7‘s worldwide total; huh, a parody outgrossing the big deal. BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War — The Calamity opened with $2.954 million, while The Mandalorian and Grogu will finish under $350 million worldwide.
Oh, and Michael has passed Oppenheimer to become the highest-earning biopic in film history. Tell us, Human Nature, when’s the $1 billion benchmark being passed? It will probably squeak past $375 million domestically as it wraps up, while the rest of the world will keep moonwalking along with the numbers.
Next weekend, for Independence Day weekend, sees the release of Minions & Monsters, Young Washington, and Lockbox. Have fun with the fireworks, folks.
